Environment · GS1.8 · 2026-10-15 · 3 min read · 2026-10-15-am
Kerala Prepares for Northeast Monsoon After 28% Southwest Deficit
Kerala experienced a 28% deficit in the southwest monsoon, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the northeast monsoon to begin soon, with mixed rainfall prospects. Understanding this shift is important for UPSC aspirants as it affects agriculture, water resources, and regional climate patterns.
Kerala's deficient southwest monsoon sets the stage for the northeast monsoon onset, influencing the state's rainfall and agricultural outlook.
Why is this in the news?
On October 14, 2026, The Hindu reported that Kerala is bracing for the northeast monsoon after a 28% southwest monsoon deficit, with the IMD expecting the northeast monsoon onset within 24 hours.
What happened with Kerala's southwest monsoon?
- Deficient rainfall. Kerala recorded a 28% deficit in the southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026, indicating significantly lower than normal precipitation during this season.
- Monsoon withdrawal. The IMD expects the southwest monsoon withdrawal criteria to be fulfilled by October 15, 2026, marking the end of this monsoon season over Kerala.
What is expected from the northeast monsoon?
- Onset timing. A marked shift in wind direction from westerlies to easterlies has occurred, and the IMD is likely to announce the northeast monsoon onset within 24 hours from October 14, 2026.
- Rainfall prospects. The northeast monsoon is expected to bring a decent opening spell of rainfall to Kerala, aided by weather systems over north Kerala, Karnataka, and the Bay of Bengal.
- Rain alerts. The IMD issued an orange alert for intense heavy rainfall in Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki, and Ernakulam districts on October 15, with yellow alerts for isolated heavy rain in most other districts.
Why does this monsoon pattern matter?
- Agricultural impact. Monsoon rainfall is crucial for Kerala's agriculture and water resources; a deficient southwest monsoon followed by northeast monsoon rainfall affects crop cycles and water availability.
- Climatic variability. The intensifying El Niño over the Pacific influences rainfall patterns by increasing atmospheric moisture capacity but can also suppress rainfall, causing intense wet spells followed by dry periods.
- Historical context. Kerala has recorded a normal northeast monsoon in 66 of 125 years, with rainfall being normal or above normal in 96 years, showing variability but overall reliability of this season.
Key numbers
| Figure | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 28% | Deficit in Kerala's southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026 | |
| 66 of 125 years | Years Kerala recorded a normal northeast monsoon from 1901 to 2025 | |
| 1,026.3 mm | Highest northeast monsoon rainfall recorded in Kerala in 2021 | |
| 185 mm | Lowest northeast monsoon rainfall recorded in Kerala in 2016 |
Back to basics: Monsoon System in India
The Indian monsoon consists mainly of two phases: the southwest monsoon and the northeast monsoon. The southwest monsoon brings most of the annual rainfall to India during June to September, driven by winds from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The northeast monsoon occurs from October to December, bringing rainfall mainly to the southeastern coast and parts of southern India like Kerala and Tamil Nadu. These monsoon patterns are critical for agriculture, water supply, and climate regulation in India.
Practice: MCQ, Mains and revision
Prelims MCQ
Consider the following statements about Kerala's monsoon in 2026: 1. Kerala experienced a 28% deficit in the southwest monsoon rainfall. 2. The northeast monsoon onset was expected after October 15, 2026, with an orange alert for heavy rain in some districts. Which of the statements is/are correct?
- 1 only
- 2 only
- Both 1 and 2
- Neither 1 nor 2
Answer and trap
Answer: (c). A trap could be confusing the timing of the northeast monsoon onset or the districts under alert; the IMD issued an orange alert specifically for Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki, and Ernakulam.
Mains question (15 marks)
Examine the impact of monsoon variability on Kerala's agriculture and water resources.
Examine: Analyze how changes in monsoon patterns affect Kerala's agriculture and water availability.
Intro: Monsoon variability significantly influences Kerala's agriculture and water resources.
- Discuss the 28% deficit in the southwest monsoon and its immediate effects on crop cycles and water supply.
- Explain the role of the northeast monsoon in compensating for southwest monsoon deficits and its variability.
- Analyze the influence of climatic factors like El Niño on rainfall patterns and their implications for Kerala.
- Highlight the importance of accurate monsoon forecasting for planning and disaster management.
Conclusion: Understanding monsoon variability is essential for sustainable agriculture and water management in Kerala.
Quick revision
- What was the deficit percentage in Kerala's southwest monsoon in 2026?
- Kerala experienced a 28% deficit in the southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026.
- When is the northeast monsoon expected to begin in Kerala in 2026?
- The northeast monsoon onset was expected within 24 hours from October 14, 2026.
- Which districts in Kerala were issued an orange alert for heavy rainfall by the IMD?
- Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki, and Ernakulam districts were issued an orange alert.
Sources
- [1] The Hindu: Keralam braces for northeast monsoon after 28% southwest monsoon deficit · 2026-10-14 · newspaper