Environment · GS1.8, GS3.5 · 2026-10-22 · 3 min read · 2026-10-22-pm
WMO Warns Current El Nino Could Be Unprecedented in Strength
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has stated that the ongoing El Nino event in the tropical Pacific may reach sea surface temperatures 3.8 degrees Celsius above average, a level never recorded in the past four decades. This event is important for UPSC aspirants as it affects global and regional climate patterns, impacting agriculture, water resources, and disaster management.
The WMO has warned that the current El Nino could be the strongest on record, with sea surface temperatures rising 3.8°C above average in the tropical Pacific.
Why is this in the news?
On October 21, 2026, the WMO released a seasonal climate outlook warning that the current El Nino event could be unprecedented in strength, with sea surface temperatures rising significantly above average.
What is the current El Nino event and how strong is it?
- Unprecedented strength. The WMO stated that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may rise to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average during November 2026 to January 2027, which is far above the 0.5 degrees Celsius anomaly that defines El Nino.
- Definition of El Nino. El Nino is a phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, disrupting normal temperature and rainfall patterns globally.
Why does this El Nino event matter for climate and society?
- Global climate impacts. A very strong El Nino can cause severe droughts in some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding in others, and increased heat across large parts of the world, affecting agriculture, water supply, and disaster preparedness.
- Long-lasting effects. The WMO Secretary-General noted that while El Nino will peak towards the end of 2026, its impacts will continue to be felt long after that period.
How is El Nino monitored and classified?
- Temperature anomaly threshold. The WMO declares an El Nino event when the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific reaches 0.5 degrees Celsius above average.
- ENSO phases. ENSO has three phases: El Nino (warming), La Nina (cooling), and a neutral phase, each influencing global weather patterns differently.
Key numbers
| Figure | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 degrees Celsius | Projected sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific during November 2026 to January 2027 | |
| 0.5 degrees Celsius | Minimum sea surface temperature anomaly to declare an El Nino event |
Back to basics: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is a climate phenomenon involving periodic fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It has three phases: El Nino (warmer sea surface temperatures), La Nina (cooler sea surface temperatures), and a neutral phase. These phases influence global weather patterns, including rainfall and temperature variations, affecting agriculture, water resources, and disaster risks worldwide.
Practice: MCQ, Mains and revision
Prelims MCQ
Consider the following statements about the current El Nino event as per the WMO report: 1. The sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific is expected to reach 3.8 degrees Celsius above average. 2. An El Nino event is declared when the sea surface temperature anomaly exceeds 0.5 degrees Celsius. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- 1 only
- 2 only
- Both 1 and 2
- Neither 1 nor 2
Answer and trap
Answer: (c). Statement 1 might be confused with typical El Nino anomalies, but the current event's 3.8°C anomaly is unprecedented; Statement 2 correctly states the WMO's threshold for declaring El Nino.
Mains question (15 marks)
Examine the significance of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and its impact on climate and agriculture in India.
Examine: Explain ENSO, its phases, and discuss how El Nino affects climate and agriculture in India.
Intro: ENSO is a climate phenomenon involving sea surface temperature fluctuations in the tropical Pacific that influence global weather patterns.
- Define El Nino and La Nina phases and their characteristics.
- Discuss how El Nino disrupts monsoon patterns in India, leading to droughts or floods.
- Explain the impact of altered rainfall and temperature on Indian agriculture and water resources.
Conclusion: Understanding ENSO is crucial for climate prediction and preparing for its socio-economic impacts in India.
Quick revision
- What sea surface temperature anomaly defines an El Nino event?
- An El Nino event is declared when the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific exceeds 0.5 degrees Celsius.
- How high is the sea surface temperature anomaly expected to rise during the current El Nino?
- The sea surface temperature anomaly may rise to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
- What are the three phases of ENSO?
- ENSO has three phases: El Nino (warming), La Nina (cooling), and a neutral phase.
Sources
- [1] The Hindu: Current El Nino event could be unprecedented in strength: WMO · 2026-10-22 · newspaper